Suspect was released on reduced bail two weeks before murder.
Mr Milon Loncar
Save Your Life with Situational Awareness and the OODA Loop
In January, 2021, the tragic murder of Mr Milan Loncar, was caught on security video in Philadelphia.
Shortly thereafter I received a question asking what Mr Loncar could have done to avoid being killed. The murder came up again during a recent class. Initially, I was somewhat reluctant to Monday morning quarterback such a tragic situation. But, after watching the video, I was struck with how clearly it demonstrated some general principles of personal security. I also think the video shows the value of obtaining training and then practicing that training. An untrained individual could simply not be expected to take the types of defensive actions I’ll discuss below. Our culture tends to be very trusting of strangers with a general belief that most people are “good.” That outlook tends to blind us to the fact that evil does indeed exist. In January, evil found a 25 year old recent college graduate just starting off in life.
I’ll reference actions in the video in my discussion below. You may want to watch it before reading the remainder of this note.
( https://nypost.com/2021/01/15/videos-shows-recent-college-grad-fatally-shot-while-walking-dog/ )
First, let’s talk about situational awareness. An oblivious person is a victim in the making. We go into situational awareness in some depth during the Refuse to Be A Victim seminar and here’s an article that expresses my thoughts on the subject:
( https://criticaledge.us/uncategorized/situational-awareness-ltcol-coopers-color-code/ )
In the briefest terms, the benefit of situational awareness can be summarized as: Awareness buys time, time buys options and options can save your life. In this case, it appears the victim was in the mental state which LtCol Cooper would call “Condition Yellow” while he was walking his dog. It’s apparent in the video that Loncar was aware of the two assailants before they approached him. That was very good. But, it wasn’t enough. He didn’t take advantage of the time that he had before the attackers got close to him. He could have seized the initiative and changed his course. He could have taken the time to make some decisions about “if they do this, I’ll do that…” Before he crossed the street, Loncar appears to have waivered about turning to his left or proceeding towards the two attackers. In his book, “The Gift of Fear,” Gavin de Becker talked about the importance of trusting that little gut feeling that says something is not right. Had Mr Loncar listened to his “gut instinct” and made the turn, he might be alive today. But, for whatever reason he continued on his original path towards the thugs. As the two assailants got closer their “interview” of Mr Loncar must have assessed him as an easy victim. As the thugs got even closer, Mr Loncar appears to have tried to move to his left so that he could pass the two men on their right side. The shooter, however, cut him off and channeled him into the space between the two attackers. That should set off very loud alarm bells for anyone. While Loncar was in that vulnerable position between the two attackers, the shooter drew his pistol and the other attacker approached Loncar from behind. This action very clearly demonstrates the concept of criminal positioning in preparation for attack that we talk about in the Refuse To Be A Victim seminar.
My review of the video convinces me that Loncar sensed that something was wrong before the thugs had gotten close to him, but he didn’t follow up on that feeling. We’ll never know why he continued along the same path. Perhaps he didn’t want to appear to be overreacting to the presence of the two men or to appear rude by changing directions. Possibly he didn’t want to expose his fear of them. It doesn’t matter why he continued to walk towards the attackers. The fact is that he did and by doing so, he forfeited whatever options he had up to that point.
Two other concepts I cover in class are: 1) Action beats reaction; and 2) The related concept of “Wait your turn….. But take your turn.” The first concept is a recognition of the fact that it takes a human roughly a quarter of a second to begin to respond to a stimulus action. That is a quarter of a second head start for the person who took the initiative. The head start is why action beats reaction. It’s a lot easier to win a race with a head start. The second concept of “Wait your turn….. But take your turn” requires a little more explanation. In this context, the saying is intended to communicate that one should take action when an attacker is distracted (That’s your “turn.”). Almost always there is a period, however brief, when the perpetrator isn’t paying attention to the victim. Sometimes that situation can be created by the potential victim by causing a distraction of the perpetrator’s attention. An example of that would be for the potential victim to toss their wallet off to the side when told to surrender it. The diversion of the perpetrator’s attention provides an additional head start on the roughly quarter of a second that one gets by initiating action.
The concept of waiting your turn but taking your turn can best be seen in an example. I once saw a security camera video from the middle east that showed a robber come into a shop, knife a clerk, then hold the shop owner and a couple of customers at knifepoint. One of the customers was armed with a firearm. The video clearly showed the robber line everyone up and threaten them with his knife. He then turned around to lock the door. After locking the door, the robber returned his attention to the armed customer. The customer had not only missed his turn, he was also on the wrong side of the “action beats reaction” rule. The robber stabbed him. The customer managed to shoot the robber before he was stabbed again. The robber ran away wounded. In addition to demonstrating some principles of personal security, the video also showed how people can continue to act in their own defense after being seriously wounded. Regardless of how it’s shown in the movies, don’t count on an attacker being totally disabled after being shot.
Just before the shooting of Mr Loncar, the video shows him sandwiched between the shooter and his accomplice with Loncar being held at gunpoint. Then the shooter looks down. That presented Loncar with a “turn” to seize the initiative. He could have struck out at the gunman. He could have stepped to his right and run off, or even taken both actions. Unfortunately, he remained frozen in place, forfeiting his turn. Had he taken action, the thug may not have even fired a shot as Loncar ran away. Even if the thug had taken a shot, there’s a good chance he would have missed. Maybe he would have even jerked the trigger and shot his accomplice as Mr Loncar took off. After all, while most street thugs may be violent people, most of them are not well trained. Even if the thug fired and managed to hit Loncar, it may not have been fatal. Sadly, the thug was inside Loncar’s OODA loop and totally controlling the situation. Loncar stood motionless to be shot. Words can’t adequately describe such a tragic loss of a young life.
( Here’s an article on the OODA Loop: Another Non-Secret Secret: The OODA Loop Part I | Critical Edge )
So what can one take away from this senseless murder? First, situational awareness is key to avoiding such situations. Avoiding a violent situation is far better than “winning “ one. Often times the “victor” is also shot, stabbed or struck with a blunt object. Even if the ”victor” is not injured, he/she may face extremely expensive and stressful civil or criminal proceedings initiated by the thug or his family. Being aware of a potential threat before one is in danger allows for a transition from the standard OODA Loop process of Observe, Orient, Decide and Act to the faster process of Recognize and Act. From what can be seen in the video, Mr Loncar clearly had the time and space to avoid strolling directly into the trap. He appeared to have noticed the attackers in advance, and to have gotten enough bad vibes from them that he considered changing course. People must trust their gut and take action if they get a sense that something’s wrong. Mr Loncar could have taken any number of actions to change the dynamic (go the other way, run, cross the street, put an object between himself and the thugs, duck into a business, etc). That would have given him the initiative and the thugs would have had to react to him rather than the other way around as he would have been inside their OODA Loop. Rather, he simply strolled into danger. Situational awareness and training provide the tools necessary for someone to decide in advance what response will be taken as a result of predetermined triggering events. If he does this, I will do that… That helps people avoid being paralyzed in an overwhelming loop of indecision. Remember awareness buys time and time buys options. Mr Loncar had an opportunity to seize the initiative. But he let it pass by and paid the price. He may have been killed even if he had acted. But he would have had a chance.
If someone is armed, the use of LtCol Cooper’s Color Code along with the Recognize/Act approach from the OODA Loop allows one to determine a triggering event(s) for activation of the use of a weapon in self-defense. It also sets one up for success in being able to articulate why they were in immediate apprehension of death or grievous bodily harm. In this context being armed can mean anything from having a firearm, to a knife, mace, flashlight, pen, knitting needle, toothpick, rock, can of soup, dog leash, a screwdriver, etc.
If someone is not armed, the Recognize/Act approach still has life-saving potential. The action might be something like running away, or keeping a large object such as a car between oneself and the threat.
In the Refuse To Be A Victim class we talk about how predators seek position after someone has “passed” their suitable victim interview. The video shows a classic case of positioning – one predator in front and one in back. It goes without saying that Mr Lancar should never have allowed the thugs to attain and maintain that positioning. He needed to move. Even in an ambush situation that is a total surprise (that’s generally what predators try to set up), through training and practice one can have predetermined triggers and actions designed to enable their survival. But, the body can’t go where the brain has never been. People have to think through likely ambush situations in advance. That’s great visualization training.
For dealing with a resource predator, the best bet in an armed robbery is to simply hand over the resource. But, other than gut feel or specific actions it’s not always possible to tell if someone just wants your money or if they want to hurt you for fun. One approach I teach is to create a turn by tossing a wallet (or whatever of value) in one direction. Then when the predator changes his mental focus to the resource being “over there,” either take off in the opposite direction or take defensive action (getting the benefit of both their distraction and the 1/4 second head start).
There’s no “right” answer. I intentionally didn’t say that any specific course of action is best. So much depends on what actions are taken and what reactions there are. It’s a bit of a dance that’s made up during the process.
Stay safe. Train well.
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